The war in Ukraine has been raging for over a year, but recent diplomatic developments hint that peace may be within reach if the right conditions can be met. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently revealed that the United States has proposed a 15-year security guarantee as part of a broader peace framework. On the surface, this may seem like a step toward ending the conflict. After all, a security guarantee offers Ukraine much-needed assurances for its defense, and the fact that talks are now moving forward suggests that the door to peace may be ajar.

However, as any seasoned diplomat will tell you, peace talks are never as straightforward as they initially appear. The 15-year security guarantee has significant implications—and not just for the security of Ukraine, but for the geopolitics of the region. The number itself is important: long enough to potentially reshape Ukraine’s defense strategy, yet short enough to make it politically fragile and subject to change with future leadership shifts. This proposed timeline highlights the delicate balancing act that has to be struck: offering a credible security guarantee while ensuring that it doesn’t overcommit countries or leaders who may not be in power decades from now. In short, while a 15-year security guarantee might look promising, it’s far from a straightforward solution.

The real challenges in the peace process, however, lie in the unresolved issues that this peace framework would need to address. Although the 15-year security guarantee represents a step toward some form of agreement, it is only one piece of the puzzle. The thorny issues of territory, military withdrawals, and enforcement still hang heavily over the talks, and these are the areas that will require the most painstaking diplomacy.

The question of territory remains perhaps the most contentious. Russia, which continues to occupy large swaths of Ukrainian land, has made it clear that any peace agreement must recognize its territorial claims, a demand that Ukraine flatly rejects. For Ukraine, the restoration of its territorial integrity is non-negotiable, especially when it comes to the regions illegally annexed by Russia. But as history has shown, territorial disputes are rarely resolved without significant concessions from both sides. Finding a solution that allows for Ukrainian sovereignty while addressing Russia’s demands will require creative diplomacy and, more importantly, mutual trust, which has been in short supply during the conflict.

Then there is the question of military withdrawals. The idea of Russia withdrawing its forces from occupied territories is a key point in the discussions, but there’s a catch: even if Russia agrees to such terms, the process of withdrawal could take years and would need to be monitored meticulously. It’s easy to envision a scenario where Russia partially withdraws its forces, only to maintain a foothold in strategic areas. For Ukraine, and its international allies, ensuring that any withdrawal is genuine and complete will be vital. This is where the 15-year security guarantee becomes particularly relevant how can Ukraine be sure that Russia will honor any withdrawal if the security assurances are short-term and dependent on political changes in the future?

Enforcement is another crucial factor that remains unresolved. Who will monitor and enforce the terms of the peace agreement? The question of a peacekeeping force or a neutral party to ensure that both sides comply with the terms is a highly sensitive issue. Ukraine has been clear that it does not want to see foreign troops on its soil, but it also needs assurances that Russia will not renege on any peace agreement. This leaves diplomats with the difficult task of crafting a peace enforcement mechanism that satisfies both sides a tricky proposition, to say the least.

As a result, the next few weeks of negotiations will likely be characterized by diplomacy-by-detail, as officials from both sides painstakingly work through the specifics of a potential deal. Even small missteps could derail the entire process. Every detail every word in the agreement will carry enormous weight, and the chances of success will depend on the willingness of both sides to compromise, as well as the ability of international mediators to navigate the complexities of the situation.

Despite the hurdles, there’s cautious optimism in the air. The fact that talks are moving forward, and that specific proposals are being floated, suggests that both sides see a way out of the conflict—at least in theory. The next few weeks could determine whether this opportunity for peace is fleeting or the beginning of a new chapter for Ukraine and the world.

One thing is clear: even as Ukraine edges closer to a potential resolution, the hard parts are still ahead. The road to peace is fraught with challenges, and while a 15-year security guarantee might offer hope, it’s the territory, withdrawals, and enforcement mechanisms that will ultimately decide the success or failure of these peace talks. The world will be watching closely as the fine details of this historic negotiation unfold.